Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits

August 2018
Tamma Carleton, Michael Delgado, Michael Greenstone, Trevor Houser, Solomon Hsiang, Andrew Hultgren, Amir Jina, Robert Kopp, Kelly McCusker, Ishan Nath, James Rising, Ashwin Rode, Samuel Seo, Justin Simcock, Arvid Viaene, Jiacan Yuan, Alice Zhang

Using subnational data from 41 countries, we develop an empirical model of the mortality-temperature relationship that allows us to estimate effects where no mortality data exist and to account for the benefits of adaptation to climate. Importantly, we develop a revealed preference approach that bounds adaptation costs, even though they cannot be directly observed. Using future climate simulations, we compute a median willingness-to-pay of $20 (moderate emissions scenario) to $39 (high emissions scenario) to avoid the excess mortality risk caused by a 1t increase in CO2 emissions (2015 USD, 3% discount rate). Allocating these costs to 24,378 political units, we find substantial heterogeneity.

The working paper can be found here.