Developing and Using Business Expectations Data

October 25–26, 2018

(All day)

University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637
Steven J. Davis, University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the Hoover Institution
Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University

This conference features research that develops, fields and uses surveys of business leaders’ expectations and beliefs. Key topics include the design and evaluation of such surveys, the formation and accuracy of expectations, how expectations feed into business decisions, and the impact of expectations quality on business performance.

Conference Keynote Speaker: Andrei Shleifer (Harvard University)

The conference will also feature presentations by the following authors and topics.

David Altig (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), Atlanta Fed Survey Data

Ruediger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame), Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs

Jose Barrero (Stanford University), The Micro and Macro Implications of Managers' Subjective Beliefs

Cheng Chen (University of Hong Kong), Uncertainty, Imperfect Information and Learning in the International Market

Ted Dolby (Office for National Statistics), Firm-level expectations and uncertainty: initial findings from the Management and Expectations Survey

Nicola Gennaioli (Bocconi University), Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

Campbell Harvey (Duke University), Managerial Recalibration: Do CFOs Learn?

Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham), Evidence from the Decision Maker Panel

Scott Ohlmacher (University of Maryland), Business Level Expectations and Uncertainty

Jane Ryngaert (Wake Forest University), Do You Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data

Xuguang Sheng (American University), Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations

Mari Tanaka (Hitotsubashi University), Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy

David Thesmar (MIT Sloan School of Management), The Aggregate Cost of Managerial Forecast Errors

October 25, 2018 (All day) October 26, 2018 (All day)