This conference features research that develops, fields and uses surveys of business leaders’ expectations and beliefs. Key topics include the design and evaluation of such surveys, the formation and accuracy of expectations, how expectations feed into business decisions, and the impact of expectations quality on business performance.
Conference Keynote Speaker: Andrei Shleifer (Harvard University)
The conference will also feature presentations by the following authors and topics.
David Altig (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta), Atlanta Fed Survey Data
Ruediger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame), Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms' Subjective Beliefs
Jose Barrero (Stanford University), The Micro and Macro Implications of Managers' Subjective Beliefs
Cheng Chen (University of Hong Kong), Uncertainty, Imperfect Information and Learning in the International Market
Ted Dolby (Office for National Statistics), Firm-level expectations and uncertainty: initial findings from the Management and Expectations Survey
Nicola Gennaioli (Bocconi University), Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
Campbell Harvey (Duke University), Managerial Recalibration: Do CFOs Learn?
Paul Mizen (University of Nottingham), Evidence from the Decision Maker Panel
Scott Ohlmacher (University of Maryland), Business Level Expectations and Uncertainty
Jane Ryngaert (Wake Forest University), Do You Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data
Xuguang Sheng (American University), Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations
Mari Tanaka (Hitotsubashi University), Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy
David Thesmar (MIT Sloan School of Management), The Aggregate Cost of Managerial Forecast Errors