The Role of Dispersed Information in Pricing Default: Evidence from the Great Recession

October 2014
Marco Macchiavelli, Emanuele Brancati
The recent Global Games literature makes important predictions on how financial crises unfold. We test the empirical relevance of these theories by analyzing how dispersed information affects banks’ default risk. We find evidence that precise information acts as a coordination device which reduces creditors’ willingness to roll over debt to a bank, thus increasing both its default risk and its vulnerability tochanges in expectations. We establish two new stylized facts. First, given an unfavorable median forecast, less dispersed beliefs greatly increase default risk; this is consistent with incomplete information models that rely on coordination risk while in contrast with a wide range of models that neglect this component. Second, less dispersion of beliefs amplifies the reaction of default risk to market expectations; importantly, precise information raises banks’ vulnerability by more than standard measures of banks’ fragility. Finally, we address concerns of endogeneity of market expectations by introducing a novel set of instruments.