FRONTIER RESEARCH, GLOBAL IMPACT.

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Podcasts episode·Oct 13, 2026

The Everywhere Millionaire: Who’s Really Rich in America

Roughly 3 million Americans own private businesses and have a net worth of at least $5 million. Together they hold more than $50 trillion, about 13 times the wealth of the entire Forbes 400. In this episode, Chicago Booth economist...
Research Briefs·Oct 7, 2026

Beliefs and Actions under Government Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Student Loan Forgiveness

Student loan borrowers who were more optimistic that their loans would be forgiven under the plan announced in August 2022 increased their routine spending by roughly $80 per month, and those who expected the COVID-era pause to be extended again...
Research Briefs·Sep 30, 2026

The AGI Race and Existential Risk

Competition among firms developing artificial general intelligence can encourage them to prioritize speed over safety, increasing the risk of a catastrophic outcome. Industry consolidation, regulation facilitating commitment to slow down, and governments entering the race in a safe way improves...
Research Briefs·Sep 29, 2026

Evaluating the Spatial Consequences of a Climate Tipping Point

What Is the AMOC?  The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) carries warm, salty surface water from the subtropics toward the North Atlantic, where the water cools, sinks, and flows back south. The delivery of warm water north helps keep Western...

Latest Frontier Research

BFI Working Paper·Oct 14, 2026

Indirect Variational Inference: Applications to Earnings Dynamics

Latent-variable models are central to economics but often entail intractable integration. Variational inference (VI), widely used in machine learning, turns this integration into tractable, differentiable optimization by replacing the likelihood with a variational objective. However, guarantees of recovering the true...
BFI Working Paper·Oct 12, 2026

Gains from Trade in Gun Policy: A Compensation-Based Benchmark

Policies restricting gun sales face substantial political opposition and constitutional constraints. In this paper, we ask how costly it would be to induce potential handgun buyers to choose less lethal alternatives. Pairing stated-choice experiments with a behavioral model of firearm...
BFI Working Paper·Oct 9, 2026

The Gendered Impacts of Perceived Skin Tone: Evidence from African American Siblings in 1870–1940

We study differences in economic outcomes by perceived skin tone among African Americans using full-count U.S. decennial census data from the late-19th and early-20th centuries. Comparing children coded as “Black” or “Mulatto” by census enumerators and linking these children across...

Past Events

Becker Brown Bag·Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 PM·Harper Center CO6

BFI Student Lunch Series – Predictably Unpredictable Inspections

Oct 12
Workshops·Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 PM·Charles M. Harper Center | Room 3B

Fall 2026 Behavioral Economics Seminar Series

by Francesca Bastianello and Avner Strulov-Shlain
Oct 8
Academic Conferences·Oct 8, 2026, 8:15 AM·University of Chicago | David Rubenstein Forum | Room 601 1201 E 60th St, Chicago, IL 60637

2026 AI in Social Science Conference

by Anjali Adukia, Alex Imas, and Chenhao Tan
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Upcoming Events

Oct 16
Academic Conferences·Oct 16, 2026, 9:00 AM·The David Rubenstein Forum - University Room A/B, 2nd Floor - 1201 E 60th St, Chicago, IL 60637

2026 Women in Empirical Microeconomics Conference

Oct 16
Workshops·Oct 16, 2026, 12:45 PM·Saieh Hall for Economics, Rm 021 , 5757 S. University, Chicago, IL, United States, 60637

Fall 2026 Development Lunch Workshop

Organizers: Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane, and Eduardo Montero
Oct 16
Seminar·Oct 16, 2026, 1:30 PM·Harper Center C03

Fall 2026 Trade and Spatial Afternoons Seminar Series

Organizers: Juanma Castro-Vincenzi and Agostina Brinatti
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About BFI

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About the Becker Friedman Institute

The Becker Friedman Institute for Economics (BFI) serves as a hub for cutting-edge analysis and research across the entire University of Chicago economics community, uniting researchers from the Booth School of Business, the Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics, the...
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Inspired by our namesakes, Nobel Laureates Gary Becker and Milton Friedman, who believed that economics research could help improve the world, BFI works with the Chicago Economics community to turn its evidence-based research into real-world impact.

Our Team

University of Chicago faculty members and other accomplished economists set the goals and direction of the Institute.
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