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There has been a recent surge in research that explores how expectations and uncertainty impact financial markets and the macroeconomy. This capstone conference, part of the Behavioral Implications of Uncertainty in Macroeconomics Project (BUMP) generously sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation under the Macro Finance Research Program of the Becker Friedman Institute, will explored some of the latest research findings on modeling and measuring expectations and their resulting implications for economic dynamics. Researchers explored the role of memory, information acquisition, and uncertainty as contributing factors for forecasting and facilitating decision making in dynamic settings.

Presentations are 45 minutes followed by a 15-minute Q&A discussion.

Agenda

Thursday, September 22, 2022
8:00 am - 9:00 am
Registration and Breakfast
9:00 am - 9:05 am
Welcome Remarks

Lars Peter Hansen, David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago

9:05 am - 10:05 am
Robust Bounds on Optimal Tax Progressively

Anmol Bhandari, Professor of Economics, University of Minnesota
Jaroslav Borovicka, Associate Professor of Economics, New York University

10:05 am - 10:25 am
Break
10:25 am - 11:25 am
Epistemic Game Theory

Adam Brandenburger, J.P. Valles Professor, NYU Stern School of Business

11:25 am - 12:15 pm
Lunch
12:15 pm - 1:15 pm
Valuation Uncertainty and Dynamic Entrepreneurial Finance

Peter Hansen, Assistant Professor in Finance, Purdue University Krannert School of Management

1:15 pm - 1:35 pm
Break
1:35 pm - 2:35 pm
Household Climate Finance: Theory and Survey Data on Safe and Risky Green Assets

Monika Piazzesi, Professor of Economics, Stanford University
Martin Schneider, Professor of Economics, Stanford University
Shifrah Aaron-Dine, Ph.D. Student, Stanford University
Johannes Beutel, Senior Economist, Deutsche Bundesbank

2:35 pm - 2:55 pm
Break
2:55 pm - 3:55 pm
Costs of Financing U.S. Federal Debt: 1791-1933

Jonathan E. Payne, Assistant Professor of Economics, Princeton University
Bálint Szőke, Economist, Federal Reserve Board
Thomas J. Sargent, W.R. Berkley Professor of Economics and Business, New York University.
George Hall, Professor of Economics, Brandeis University

3:55 pm - 4:15 pm
Break
4:15 pm - 5:15 pm
Risk, Ambiguity, and Misspecification: Decision Theory, Robust Control, and Statistics

Lars Peter Hansen, David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago
Thomas J. Sargent, W.R. Berkley Professor of Economics and Business, New York University.

5:15 pm
Conference Adjourns
6:30 pm
Conference Dinner

Private Dinner – Invitation Only

Friday, September 23, 2022
8:00 am - 8:30 am
Registration and Breakfast
8:30 am - 9:30 am
Externally Valid Policy Choice

Tim Christensen, Associate Professor, New York University
Christopher Adjaho, PhD Student, New York University

9:30 am - 9:50 am
Break
9:50 am - 10:50 am
Robust Nonlinear Pricing and Welfare Guarantees

Dirk Bergemann, Douglass and Marion Campbell Professor of Economics, Yale University

10:50 am - 11:10 am
Break
11:10 am - 12:10 pm
Uncertainty in Space and Time: Carbon Prices and Forest Preservation in the Brazilian Amazon

José Scheinkman, Charles and Lynn Zhang Professor in Economics, Columbia University
Lars Peter Hansen, David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago
Juliano Junqueira Assunção, Professor of Economics, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)
Todd Munson, Computational Scientist, Argonne National Laboratory

12:10 pm - 1:00 pm
Lunch
1:00 pm - 2:00 pm
Informational Robustness

Dirk Bergemann, Douglass and Marion Campbell Professor of Economics, Yale University
Stephen Morris, Peter A. Diamond Professor in Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

2:00 pm - 2:15 pm
Formal Discussion
2:15 pm
Closing Remarks

Lars Peter Hansen, David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago
Thomas J. Sargent, W.R. Berkley Professor of Economics and Business, New York University.