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The “Conference on Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Climate and Macroeconomics” is a small and colloquial two-day workshop to discuss the latest advancements in theory and applications of decision-making under uncertainty with the goal of advancing policy solutions for the climate and the economy. We envision four sessions each with plenary speakers along with more focused perspectives and research contributions from additional scholars. The talks will provide an inroad for participants interested in the climate sciences, economic implications, and uncertainty from a variety of different vantage points. We aim for this event to nurture cross-disciplinary communication on important challenges related to climate change. This conference is organized by the Macro Finance Research Program (MFR) at the University of Chicago, Bocconi University, and the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment

Objectives: A small and colloquial two-day workshop to discuss the latest advancements in theory and applications of decision-making under uncertainty with the goal of fostering a dialogue between climate and economic sciences and advancing climate policy solutions.

Format: The conference will be two days long, with one day centered on climate and the second day focused on macro-economics. On each day, there will be two sessions of roughly 3 hours each. One hour of introduction by two speakers describing the problem and the current knowledge. One hour of responses by discussants. One hour of brainstorming between experts from different disciplines.

Organized by MFR-Chicago, Bocconi, and the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment.

Co-funded by the European Union (ERC, EUNICE, project number: 101044703). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.

Attendance for this event is by invitation only.

Agenda

Wednesday, May 24, 2023
Session 1: Climate Model Uncertainty

Johannes Emmerling, (RFF-CMCC) (Moderator)

Theme: How is uncertainty dealt with by climate and energy models and by institutions such as the IPCC? What are the biggest sources of uncertainty for the future climate under different transition pathways? Can we judge the likelihood of climate policies and transitions over the next 8 years? What policy recommendations can models provide in the face of deep uncertainty regarding long-term climate and societal responses?

9:00 am - 10:00 am
Opening Shots

Sonia Seneviratne, ETH Zurich

Massimo Tavoni, RFF-CMCC, Polimi

10:00 am - 10:30 am
Coffee Break
10:30 am - 11:30 am
Views

Andrea Saltelli, University of Bergen

Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Joeri Rogelj, Imperial College London

Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge

11:30 am - 12:30 pm
Reactions from Economists and Open Discussion
12:30 pm - 2:15 pm
Lunch
Session 2: Climate Risks and Tipping Points

Valentina Bosetti, Bocconi University, RFF-CMCC (Moderator)

Theme:  When uncertainties relate to processes that are non-linear and might bring the system to a new state, policy-making calls for new tools. What are key non-linear climate risks and natural tipping points, and what do we know about tipping points in society? How can these be reasonably estimated? What frameworks are best suited to deal with these uncertainties? What climate strategies best work to deal with deep climate risks?

2:30 pm - 3:30 pm
Opening Shots

Michael Ghil, UCLA 

Tim Lenton, University of Exeter

3:30 pm - 4:00 pm
Coffee Break
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
Views

Simon Dietz, London School of Economics 

Antonio Navarra, Centro euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)

Tatiana Filatova, Tu Delft

Daniel Heyen, University of Kaiserslautern-Landau

5:00 pm - 6:00 pm
Reactions from Economists and Open Discussion
7:30 pm - 10:00 pm
Social Dinner

attendance is by invitation only

Thursday, May 25, 2023
Session 3: Integrating Long-Term Uncertainty into Macro Models: Challenges and Successes

Luigi Iovino, Bocconi University (Moderator)

Theme: How layers of uncertainty are accounted for and dealt with in macroeconomic scenarios.

9:00 am - 10:30 am
Opening Shots

Felix Kubler, University of Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute 

Mark Watson, Princeton University

10:30 am - 11:00 am
Coffee Break
11:00 am - 12:00 pm
Views

Michael Barnett, Arizona State University

Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank

Caspar Siegert, Bank of England

12:00 pm - 12:30 pm
Reactions and Open Discussion
12:30 pm - 2:15 pm
Lunch
Session 4: Science Based Policy Making

Luca Braghieri, Bocconi University (Moderator)

Theme: The role of rational choice theory in mapping natural and social science into policy making.

2:15 pm - 3:00 pm
Opening Shot

Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago 

3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
Views

Tommaso Denti, Cornell University

Luciano Pomatto, California Institute of Technology  

Ted Loch-Temzelides, Rice University

4:00 pm - 4:20 pm
Coffee Break
4:20 pm - 5:00 pm
Views

Giacomo Lanzani, Massachusetts Institute of Technology  

Lenny Smith, Virginia Tech 

5:00 pm - 5:30 pm
Reactions and Open Discussion