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This conference featured research that develops, fields and uses surveys of business leaders’ expectations and beliefs. Key topics included the design and evaluation of such surveys, the formation and accuracy of expectations, how expectations feed into business decisions, and the impact of expectations quality on business performance.

Agenda

Thursday, October 25, 2018
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Lunch and Registration
1:00 pm - 1:45 pm
Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs
Ruediger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame
1:45 pm - 2:30 pm
Business Level Expectations and Uncertainty
Scott Ohlmacher, University of Maryland
2:30 pm - 2:45 pm
Break
2:45 pm - 3:30 pm
Do you Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data
Jane Ryngaert, Wake Forest University
3:30 pm - 4:15 pm
Do Managerial Forecasting Biases Matter?
4:15 pm - 4:45 pm
Break
4:45 pm - 5:30 pm
Misallocation Effects and Brexit
Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham
5:30 pm - 6:30 pm
Keynote Speaker
Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University
6:30 pm
Adjourn for the day
Friday, October 26, 2018
8:30 am
Breakfast

Outside of Room 021

9:00 am - 9:45 am
Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations
Simon Sheng, American University
9:45 am - 10:30 am
Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy
Mari Tanaka, Hitotsubashi University
10:30 am - 10:45 am
Break
10:45 am - 11:15 am
Atlanta Fed Survey Data
David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
11:15 am - 12:00 pm
The Micro and Macro Implications of Managers’ Subjective Beliefs
Jose Barrero, Stanford University
- 1:00 pm
Lunch

Room 112

1:00 pm - 1:45 pm
Managerial Recalibration: Do CFOs Learn?
Campbell Harvey, Duke University
1:45 pm - 2:30 pm
Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
2:30 pm - 2:45 pm
Break
2:45 pm - 3:30 pm
Uncertainty, Imperfect Information and Learning in the International Market
Cheng Chen, University of Hong Kong and Clemson University
3:30 pm - 4:00 pm
A Firm-Level Perspective on Micro and Macro Level Uncertainty
Ted Dolby, Office for National Statistics
4:00 pm
Conference Adjourns