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The literature on the evolution of influenza—and current economic estimates of the value of vaccination—assume that getting a flu shot does not affect drift and variation in the illness. But that is not theoretically sound; vaccination as much as natural immunity acquired through infection should affect flu evolution.

In this Becker Brown Bag talk, Anup Malani, the Lee and Brena Freeman Professor at the University of Chicago Law School and a professor at the Pritzker School of Medicine, presented work that simulates the impact of vaccination on the evolution of flu, and calculates the externalities arising from vaccination.