The “Conference on Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in Climate and Macroeconomics” is a small and colloquial two-day workshop to discuss the latest advancements in theory and applications of decision-making under uncertainty with the goal of advancing policy solutions for the climate and the economy. We envision four sessions each with plenary speakers along with more focused perspectives and research contributions from additional scholars. The talks will provide an inroad for participants interested in the climate sciences, economic implications, and uncertainty from a variety of different vantage points. We aim for this event to nurture cross-disciplinary communication on important challenges related to climate change. This conference is organized by the Macro Finance Research Program (MFR) at the University of Chicago, Bocconi University, and the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment.
Objectives: A small and colloquial two-day workshop to discuss the latest advancements in theory and applications of decision-making under uncertainty with the goal of fostering a dialogue between climate and economic sciences and advancing climate policy solutions.
Format: The conference will be two days long, with one day centered on climate and the second day focused on macro-economics. On each day, there will be two sessions of roughly 3 hours each. One hour of introduction by two speakers describing the problem and the current knowledge. One hour of responses by discussants. One hour of brainstorming between experts from different disciplines.
Organized by MFR-Chicago, Bocconi, and the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment.
Co-funded by the European Union (ERC, EUNICE, project number: 101044703). Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Research Council. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.
Attendance for this event is by invitation only.
Agenda
Session 1: Climate Model Uncertainty
Johannes Emmerling, (RFF-CMCC) (Moderator)
Theme: How is uncertainty dealt with by climate and energy models and by institutions such as the IPCC? What are the biggest sources of uncertainty for the future climate under different transition pathways? Can we judge the likelihood of climate policies and transitions over the next 8 years? What policy recommendations can models provide in the face of deep uncertainty regarding long-term climate and societal responses?
Opening Shots
Sonia Seneviratne, ETH Zurich
Massimo Tavoni, RFF-CMCC, Polimi
Coffee Break
Views
Andrea Saltelli, University of Bergen
Elmar Kriegler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Joeri Rogelj, Imperial College London
Sander van der Linden, University of Cambridge
Reactions from Economists and Open Discussion
Lunch
Session 2: Climate Risks and Tipping Points
Valentina Bosetti, Bocconi University, RFF-CMCC (Moderator)
Theme: When uncertainties relate to processes that are non-linear and might bring the system to a new state, policy-making calls for new tools. What are key non-linear climate risks and natural tipping points, and what do we know about tipping points in society? How can these be reasonably estimated? What frameworks are best suited to deal with these uncertainties? What climate strategies best work to deal with deep climate risks?
Opening Shots
Michael Ghil, UCLA
Tim Lenton, University of Exeter
Coffee Break
Views
Simon Dietz, London School of Economics
Antonio Navarra, Centro euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
Tatiana Filatova, Tu Delft
Daniel Heyen, University of Kaiserslautern-Landau
Reactions from Economists and Open Discussion
Social Dinner
attendance is by invitation only
Session 3: Integrating Long-Term Uncertainty into Macro Models: Challenges and Successes
Luigi Iovino, Bocconi University (Moderator)
Theme: How layers of uncertainty are accounted for and dealt with in macroeconomic scenarios.
Opening Shots
Felix Kubler, University of Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute
Mark Watson, Princeton University
Coffee Break
Views
Michael Barnett, Arizona State University
Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank
Caspar Siegert, Bank of England
Reactions and Open Discussion
Lunch
Session 4: Science Based Policy Making
Luca Braghieri, Bocconi University (Moderator)
Theme: The role of rational choice theory in mapping natural and social science into policy making.
Opening Shot
Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago
Views
Tommaso Denti, Cornell University
Luciano Pomatto, California Institute of Technology
Ted Loch-Temzelides, Rice University
Coffee Break
Views
Giacomo Lanzani, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Lenny Smith, Virginia Tech