Using data from ADP one of the world’s largest human resources management companies, to measure changes in the US labor market during the early stages of this “Pandemic Recession,” the authors find that paid US employment declined by about 22% between mid-February and mid-April, 2020. This translates to a reduction in US employment of about 29 million workers as measured in the payroll data. In no prior recession since the Great Depression has US employment declined by a cumulative 2% during the first three-months of the recession (Chart 1). Across all prior recessions since the 1940s, peak employment declines were never more than 6.5%. The US economy has already experienced a 22% decline in employment during the first month of this recession (Chart 2).
Among other important findings, the authors reveal that employment declines were disproportionately concentrated among lower-wage workers: 35% of all workers in the bottom quintile of the wage distribution lost their job, at least temporarily, during the first month of the recession. The comparable number for workers in the top quintile was only 9% (Chart 3). This implies that over 36% of the 29 million jobs lost during the first four weeks of this recession were concentrated among workers in the lowest wage quintile. Job declines were larger in-service industries (such as leisure and hospitality) and in smaller firms, which disproportionately employ lower-wage workers (Chart 4).
The recession is having a disproportionate effect on small firms and lower-skilled workers: precisely those without the cash flow and savings to smooth consumption. The longer the recession persists, the greater the likelihood that lower wage workers may suffer the disproportionate brunt of the recession.