Finding•Jan 25, 2022
The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of U.S. Households Before and During the Covid19 Pandemic
Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Michael Weber
In normal times, realized inflation barely differs across observable dimensions; however, low income, low education, and Black households experienced a larger increase in realized inflation during the pandemic than other households did.
Topics: COVID-19, Monetary Policy
Insights / Research Brief•Jan 13, 2022
Selection in Surveys
When COVID-19 swept the world in early 2020 and closed or restricted business activity, researchers and policymakers scrambled to determine the virus’s economic impact on everything from employment, income, and childcare to business closures, commercial property, and work-from-home strategies. Policymakers needed answers fast to plan the most efficacious responses and direct limited resources to benefit those who needed it the most.
Topics: COVID-19, Employment & Wages
Finding•Nov 16, 2021
COVID Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails
Philip Bunn, David Altig, Lena Anayi, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, Emil Mihaylov, Paul Mizen, Greg Thwaites
The nature of firm-level uncertainty about future growth rates has shifted greatly since the pandemic struck: Initially, business executives perceived an enormous increase in downside uncertainty, but as of October 2021, almost all the extra firm-level uncertainty is to the upside.