Social distancing policies have led to many workers losing their jobs, at least temporarily, and the burden of job loss has mostly fallen on economically vulnerable workers. New research reveals that employment losses are around four times larger for workers without a college degree, one and half times larger for non-white workers, and five times larger for workers in the bottom half of the income distribution (see figure). This is related to the characteristics of the jobs of these types of workers. Poor and economically disadvantaged workers are more likely to be employed in jobs that are less likely to be conducted from home. These jobs also tend to rank highly in terms of the amount of close physical interaction that occurs at work (e.g., a nail salon worker). Combined, these results imply that workers that have been hurt most by the crisis economically, are also at the highest health risk as they go back to work.
Insights / Research Brief•Nov 15, 2023
Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts: Aggregate vs. Aggregated Inflation Expectations
Alexander Dietrich, Edward S. Knotek II, Kristian O. Myrseth, Robert W. Rich, Raphael Schoenle, Michael Weber
A novel measure of consumer inflation expectations that is constructed by combining forecasts from across different categories of consumption is consistently lower than conventional measures. It is also less volatile and a stronger predictor of consumers’ spending plans.
Insights / Research Brief•Nov 07, 2023
Why is Trade Not Free? A Revealed Preference Approach
Rodrigo Adão, Arnaud Costinot, Dave Donaldson, John Sturm
Redistributive trade protection accounts for a significant fraction of tariff variation in the US and causes large monetary transfers between US individuals, mostly driven by differences in the social value of transfers across individuals employed in different sectors.
Topics: Employment & Wages