On the one hand, one might expect that authoritarian states would have an easier time managing a pandemic like COVID-19 given that the government could force compliance with mask and vaccine mandates, for example. On the other hand, authoritarian governments might take an opportunity like a pandemic to escalate oppression and increase control over society under the pretense of protecting public health. Indeed, studies have shown that democracy and human rights worsened in more than 80 countries since the onset of COVID-19, especially in highly repressive states.
The authors examine the case of Russia to investigate these and related questions by studying regional variance in government response to COVID-19. Before describing the authors’ findings, a brief note about how Russia governs itself. There are 85 regional parliaments in Russia led by governors that, since 2004, are no longer elected by citizens but are rather appointed by the central government (a change made under Putin). Though these regions share a similar culture, language, and history, they vary significantly in the capacity of elites to provide public goods and maintain order, in the strengths of civil society, and in the quality of political institutions.
Any autonomy retained by regional governors is at the discretion of federal authorities. For example, in April 2020, governors were granted special authority to choose measures for preventing the spread of COVID-19 in their regions, which approached the pandemic in profoundly different ways. About 30 regions chose to impose electronic passes to leave the house. Only a few regions declared a force majeure (usually defined as an “act of god”), which allowed businesses to resolve lapsed contractual obligations, while in most cases regions labeled lockdowns as “non-working days,” making it harder for businesses to handle lapsed contracts. In addition, regions varied in the extent of information manipulation about the gravity of the COVID threat and the number of COVID-related prosecutions.
The authors examined the regional variation in government response to COVID-19 to determine whether and how the central government exploited the pandemic to maintain its grip on power. Their analysis of the data, along with the application of a theoretical model that examines the relationship between repression and informational control, finds that the government exploited the COVID-19 pandemic to maintain its grip on power. Some specific findings include:
Bottom line: Information manipulation is complementary to repression; the quality of political institutions, the strength of the civil society, and the strength of political monopoly all influence the extent to which the incumbent government can engage in information manipulation and repression.