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Insights / Research BriefJun 12, 2024

Discount Factors and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Dual-Listed Stocks

Quentin Vandeweyer, Minghao Yang, Constantine Yannelis
Surprise changes in US monetary policy rates directly affect asset prices, with a 100-basis point surprise cut resulting in a 30-basis point increase in the ratio of stock prices over 5 days; this effect grows after the initial announcement because higher-frequency strategies likely underestimate the effects of policy transmission.
Topics:  Monetary Policy
Insights / Research BriefJun 11, 2024

What is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence

Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica, Jesse M. Shapiro
The events that news outlets select for coverage can be largely explained with a statistic that captures how unexpected they are, suggesting that reporting may be less biased than it appears.
Insights / Podcast episodeJun 11, 2024

India’s Economic Future

India’s government has big goals for economic growth. The former Governor of the country’s Reserve...
Insights / Research BriefJun 04, 2024

Predicting Police Misconduct

Greg Stoddard, Dylan J. Fitzpatrick, Jens Ludwig
Police misconduct is partially predictable; also, many officers at risk of on-duty misconduct have elevated off-duty risk, suggesting a potential link between accountability and officer wellness.
Insights / Research BriefJun 04, 2024

What Went Wrong with Federal Student Loans?

Adam Looney, Constantine Yannelis
The increase in aggregate student debt and the struggles of today’s borrowers can be traced to changes in federal policies intended to broaden access to educational opportunities, which increased enrollment and borrowing in higher-risk circumstances.
Topics:  Higher Education & Workforce Training
Insights / Research BriefMay 30, 2024

Bourbon Reforms and State Capacity in the Spanish Empire

Giorgio Chiovelli, Leopoldo Fergusson, Luis R. Martínez, Juan David Torres, Felipe Valencia Caicedo
The Spanish colonial empire in Latin America offers insights into the effects of state formation on economic development and political institutions, with lessons for today. Spain introduced a system in the late 18th century that relied on appointed governors with total authority over an administrative unit, which greatly increased Crown revenue. The reform strengthened state presence and disrupted corruption and exploitation of indigenous communities, but also generated tension with the local elites and plausibly contributed to Latin American independence.
Topics:  Tax & Budget
Insights / Research BriefMay 30, 2024

Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models

Alex G. Kim, Maximilian Muhn, Valeri V. Nikolaev
GPT outperforms financial analysts in predicting companies’ earnings changes, especially when analysts struggle, with accuracy comparable to state-of-the-art machine learning models.
Insights / Podcast episodeMay 28, 2024

ChatGPT: Who’s Adopting, Who’s Abstaining, and Why?

Tess Vigeland, Anders Humlum
A year-and-a-half after its launch, half of workers report having used ChatGPT on the job....