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Insights / Research BriefSep 19, 2023

The Labor Market Returns to Delaying Pregnancy

Yana Gallen, Juanna Schrøter Joensen, Eva Rye Johansen, Gregory F. Veramendi
Unplanned pregnancies halt women’s career progression and result in income losses of 20% five years after an initial contraceptive failure. The detrimental effects of unplanned children are larger for younger women and women enrolled in education. In contrast, planned children have minimal impacts on women’s labor market outcomes.
Topics:  Employment & Wages
Insights / Research BriefSep 13, 2023

Bottlenecks: Sectoral Imbalances and the US Productivity Slowdown

Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, Christina Patterson
Lagging US productivity growth since the 1970s, despite the rapid pace of innovation in information and communications technologies (ICT) and electronics, is explained in part from an unbalanced sectoral distribution of innovation; that is, technological advances over the last several decades have been unbalanced across sectors and have created endogenous bottlenecks, holding back aggregate productivity.
Topics:  Employment & Wages
Insights / Research BriefSep 07, 2023

An Experimental Evaluation of Deferred Acceptance: Evidence from Over 100 Army Officer Labor Markets

Jonathan M.V. Davis, Kyle Greenberg, Damon Jones
Matching U.S. Army officers to units using deferred acceptance reduced attrition in their first year by 16.7%, but this effect faded in the second year. Matching with deferred acceptance had no impact on performance. Communication and coordination of preferences may limit the benefits of deferred acceptance in some matching markets.
Topics:  Employment & Wages
Insights / Research BriefAug 29, 2023

Monitoring for Waste: Evidence from Medicare Audits

Maggie Shi
Every dollar Medicare spent on monitoring generates $24–29 in government savings, mainly from the deterrence of medically unnecessary future care. Monitoring increases upfront investments in technology to assess the necessity of care.
Topics:  Health care
Insights / Research BriefAug 11, 2023

The (Lack of) Anticipatory Effects of the Social Safety Net on Human Capital Investment

Manasi Deshpande, Rebecca Dizon-Ross
Most parents whose children receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits overestimate the likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood; further, reducing parents’ expectations that children will receive benefits in adulthood does not increase investments in children’s human capital.
Topics:  Employment & Wages
Insights / Research BriefAug 09, 2023

The Impact of Incarceration on Employment, Earnings, and Tax Filing

Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Carl McPherson, Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov, Jeffrey Weaver
Incarceration generates short-term drops in economic activity, but has limited long-run impacts. Why? Most defendants’ challenges in the labor market begin long before they first enter prison.
Topics:  Employment & Wages
Insights / Research BriefAug 04, 2023

How Replaceable Is a Low-Wage Job?

Evan K. Rose, Yotam Shem-Tov
Among low-wage workers, job loss causes a 13% reduction in earnings six years later and over $40,000 cumulative lost earnings, mostly due to reductions in employment and hours. Comparable losses for workers earning $15-$30 per hour are driven by wage reductions.
Topics:  Employment & Wages
Insights / Research BriefJul 20, 2023

Remote Work and City Structure

Ferdinando Monte, Charly Porcher, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
US cell-phone-based mobility data reveal that central business trips in large cities have stabilized at about 60% of pre-pandemic levels, with smaller cities returning to pre-pandemic levels. For 274 US cities that stabilized at a large fraction of remote work, welfare losses average 2.7%.
Topics:  Employment & Wages