Finding•Jul 23, 2021
How Americans Respond to Idiosyncratic and Exogenous Changes in Household Wealth and Unearned Income
Mikhail Golosov, Michael Graber, Magne Mogstad, David Novgorodsky
On average, an extra dollar of unearned income in a given period reduces pre- tax labor earnings by about 50 cents, decreases total labor taxes by 10 cents, and increases consumption by 60 cents.
Finding•Jul 23, 2021
Welfare Costs of Idiosyncratic and Aggregate Consumption Shocks
George M. Constantinides
The benefits of eliminating idiosyncratic shocks to consumption unrelated to the business cycle are 47.3% of the utility of a member of a household. By contrast, the benefits of eliminating idiosyncratic shocks to consumption related to the business cycle are 3.4% of utility and the benefits of eliminating aggregate shocks are 7.7% of utility.
Finding•Jul 21, 2021
Test Assets and Weak Factors
Stefano Giglio, Dacheng Xiu, Dake Zhang
The estimated strength or weakness of a risk premium factor in asset pricing should be derived from a broad set of assets; this work proposes a novel methodology to select assets from a universe of test assets and to estimate the risk premium of a particular factor by accounting for all weak factors.
Topics: Financial Markets
Finding•Jul 15, 2021
How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?
Autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by as much as 35%; adjusting GDP data for such manipulation provides a more nuanced view on the economic success of non-democracies in recent decades.
Finding•Jul 14, 2021
Refugee Return and Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
Christopher W. Blair, Austin Wright
A large cash assistance program for refugee returnees can lead to a significant increase in repatriation while reducing insurgent violence, and local institutions for conflict mediation can lead to reductions in social conflict.
Finding•Jul 12, 2021
A Denial a Day Keeps the Doctor Away
Abe Dunn, Joshua Gottlieb, Adam Shapiro, Daniel J. Sonnenstuhl, Pietro Tebaldi
Physicians lose about 17% of Medicaid revenue to billing problems, compared with 5% for Medicare, and 3% for commercial payers; these costs dissuade some doctors from accepting Medicaid patients.
Topics: Health care
Finding•Jul 08, 2021
Aid Fragmentation and Corruption
Travers B. Child, Austin Wright, Yun Xiao
When delivered by a single donor, development aid appears to curtail corruption, boost public opinion, and reduce conflict. But under donor fragmentation, the benefits of aid are significantly reduced.
Finding•Jun 28, 2021
Erik Hurst, Yona Rubinstein, Kazuatsu Shimizu
Since 1980, the effect of declining racial skill gaps and discrimination over the preceding 20 years was offset by the increasing returns to Abstract tasks. This new research finds that the Black-White wage gap would have shrunk by about 7 percentage points by 2018 if the wage premium to task requirements were held at their 1980 levels, all else equal.
Topics: Employment & Wages