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FindingJul 23, 2021

How Americans Respond to Idiosyncratic and Exogenous Changes in Household Wealth and Unearned Income

Mikhail Golosov, Michael Graber, Magne Mogstad, David Novgorodsky
On average, an extra dollar of unearned income in a given period reduces pre- tax labor earnings by about 50 cents, decreases total labor taxes by 10 cents, and increases consumption by 60 cents.
FindingJul 23, 2021

Welfare Costs of Idiosyncratic and Aggregate Consumption Shocks

George M. Constantinides
The benefits of eliminating idiosyncratic shocks to consumption unrelated to the business cycle are 47.3% of the utility of a member of a household. By contrast, the benefits of eliminating idiosyncratic shocks to consumption related to the business cycle are 3.4% of utility and the benefits of eliminating aggregate shocks are 7.7% of utility.
FindingJul 21, 2021

Test Assets and Weak Factors

Stefano Giglio, Dacheng Xiu, Dake Zhang
The estimated strength or weakness of a risk premium factor in asset pricing should be derived from a broad set of assets; this work proposes a novel methodology to select assets from a universe of test assets and to estimate the risk premium of a particular factor by accounting for all weak factors.
Topics:  Financial Markets
FindingJul 15, 2021

How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?

Luis Martínez
Autocracies overstate yearly GDP growth by as much as 35%; adjusting GDP data for such manipulation provides a more nuanced view on the economic success of non-democracies in recent decades.
FindingJul 14, 2021

Refugee Return and Conflict: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Christopher W. Blair, Austin Wright
A large cash assistance program for refugee returnees can lead to a significant increase in repatriation while reducing insurgent violence, and local institutions for conflict mediation can lead to reductions in social conflict.
FindingJul 12, 2021

A Denial a Day Keeps the Doctor Away

Abe Dunn, Joshua Gottlieb, Adam Shapiro, Daniel J. Sonnenstuhl, Pietro Tebaldi
Physicians lose about 17% of Medicaid revenue to billing problems, compared with 5% for Medicare, and 3% for commercial payers; these costs dissuade some doctors from accepting Medicaid patients.
Topics:  Health care
FindingJul 08, 2021

Aid Fragmentation and Corruption

Travers B. Child, Austin Wright, Yun Xiao
When delivered by a single donor, development aid appears to curtail corruption, boost public opinion, and reduce conflict. But under donor fragmentation, the benefits of aid are significantly reduced.
FindingJun 28, 2021

Task-Based Discrimination

Erik Hurst, Yona Rubinstein, Kazuatsu Shimizu
Since 1980, the effect of declining racial skill gaps and discrimination over the preceding 20 years was offset by the increasing returns to Abstract tasks. This new research finds that the Black-White wage gap would have shrunk by about 7 percentage points by 2018 if the wage premium to task requirements were held at their 1980 levels, all else equal.
Topics:  Employment & Wages