Research Briefs·Oct 7, 2026

Beliefs and Actions under Government Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Student Loan Forgiveness

Dmitri Koustas, Michael Weber, and Constantine Yannelis
Student loan borrowers who were more optimistic that their loans would be forgiven under the plan announced in August 2022 increased their routine spending by roughly $80 per month, and those who expected the COVID-era pause to be extended again...
Research Briefs·Sep 30, 2026

The AGI Race and Existential Risk

Ethan Bueno de Mesquita and Wioletta Dziuda
Competition among firms developing artificial general intelligence can encourage them to prioritize speed over safety, increasing the risk of a catastrophic outcome. Industry consolidation, regulation facilitating commitment to slow down, and governments entering the race in a safe way improves...
Research Briefs·Sep 29, 2026

Evaluating the Spatial Consequences of a Climate Tipping Point

José-Luis Cruz, Klaus Desmet, and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
What Is the AMOC?  The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) carries warm, salty surface water from the subtropics toward the North Atlantic, where the water cools, sinks, and flows back south. The delivery of warm water north helps keep Western...
Research Briefs·Sep 24, 2026

How Disability Benefits in Early Life Affect Adult Outcomes

Manasi Deshpande, Alessandra Voena, and Jason B. Weitze
Receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI) in childhood increases children’s earnings in adulthood when parents continue working (and therefore total household income increases), but has zero or negative effects when parents offset the transfer by reducing their earnings. This suggests that...
Research Briefs·Sep 21, 2026

Zoning: Externalities or Misallocation?

Yu-Hsin Ho, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Wen-Tai Hsu, and Yu-Jhih Luo
Residential-commercial zoning in American cities increases neighborhood specialization and reduces resident welfare. The dominant effect of zoning is not to correct externalities—whether the negative spillovers (noise, congestion, pollution) of the traditional Euclidean view, or the positive spillovers from mixing that...
Research Briefs·Sep 14, 2026

Proposed Mergers Where Efficiencies Are Needed Most Might Be the Least Likely to Deliver Them

Robert D. Metcalfe, Alexandre B. Sollaci, and Chad Syverson
Proposed mergers rarely offer both large efficiency gains and large market power gains, because either alone is enough to make a deal worth pursuing for firms. This negative relationship is due to the nature of selection into mergers and has...
Research Briefs·Sep 8, 2026

The Success of the Embedded State in England

Leander Heldring, Davis Kedrosky, and James Robinson
Some states govern effectively despite lacking the fiscal resources to fund a modern bureaucracy. This is true of the developing world today, but also historically of currently developed countries. Using a unique survey of English urban government from 1835, the...
Topics: Fiscal Studies
Research Briefs·Sep 2, 2026

The Enjoyment Paradox: College-Educated Mothers Invest More in Their Children’s Learning and Enjoy It Less

Ariel Kalil, Haoxuan Liu, and Ritika Sethi
College-educated mothers spend more time on learning activities with their children despite reporting substantially lower enjoyment of those activities. This enjoyment paradox is sharpest among non-employed, higher-income college-educated mothers.
Research Briefs·Aug 27, 2026

Startups in Africa

Emanuele Colonnelli, Marcio Cruz, Mariana Pereira-Lopez, Tommaso Porzio, and Chun Zhao
Africa’s startup ecosystem is concentrated in a few hubs and led by highly educated founders. Startups demand equity, but that capital is supplied mainly by foreign investors and flows disproportionately to founders with foreign education or work experience, with important...
Research Briefs·Aug 26, 2026

The Effects of SNAP Sugary Drink Restrictions on Consumption and Welfare

Hunt Allcott, Amy Finkelstein, Anna Grummon, and Matthew Notowidigdo
Restrictions on spending SNAP benefits on sugary drinks reduced the average SNAP household’s retail purchases of excluded drinks by 12.4% over the first half of 2026. In states that excluded only some sugary drinks, SNAP households partially substituted to non-excluded...