How the Trump Administration Misused a UChicago Economist’s Research to Justify Tariffs
Brent Neiman walks us through what the original his study actually showed, how it got misinterpreted, and why today’s tariff regime marks one of the most consequential trade shifts in decades.
Did Trump’s Tax Cut and Jobs Act Work?
The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) reduced corporate tax revenue by 40%. Firms experiencing larger tax rate cuts invested more, raising total investment by 11%. The TCJA raised GDP by less than 1%.
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Who Pays for Tariffs Along the Supply Chain?
American consumers ultimately paid more than the government collected, as retailers adjusted slowly and the industry turned to creative “tariff engineering” to dodge fees.
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Tariffs, Trust, and the Twilight of Norms: U.S.–China Relations in the Trump Era
What happens when trust in longstanding economic norms starts to break down? In this podcast, economist Chang-Tai Hsieh explores the geopolitical and economic consequences of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, particularly its approach to China.
How Much do Consumers Dislike Market Volatility?
Households are willing to forgo approximately 5–6% of their lifetime consumption to eliminate business cycle fluctuations and around 5% to achieve their desired inflation rate. This amount is higher among consumers whose consumption is more pro-cyclical, those facing greater economic uncertainty, and those living in countries with a history of higher economic volatility.
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Trace Transactions Among Consumers, Producers, the Government, and Foreign Trade Partners
This novel research improves upon current aggregate economic tracking measures to include disaggregated economic accounts that enrich our understanding of economic shocks and their effects.
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Why do Voters Support Tariffs that Hurt Them?
Many voters support tariffs and protectionist policies that materially hurt them because they derive value from consuming or possessing goods that others want but do not have. Individuals with such “exclusionary preferences” are significantly more willing to accept higher prices from tariffs than from other policies, like stimulus spending.
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Who do Tariffs Help Most?
Redistributive trade protection accounts for a significant fraction of tariff variation in the US and causes large monetary transfers between US individuals, mostly driven by differences in the social value of transfers across individuals employed in different sectors.
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