Carbon Prices, Forest Conservation and Reforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation for cattle ranching in the Brazilian Amazon emits carbon, and reforestation absorbs carbon. The social productivities for these alternative activities vary across locations. We analyze a spatial/dynamic model of efficient land allocation to establish a benchmark for policies. We treat cattle prices as stochastic and location-specific productivities as uncertain when assessing the consequences of imposing alternative prices of carbon emissions. Modest carbon price increases would incentivize Brazil to choose policies that capture a significant amount of greenhouse gases in the next 30 years. Our analysis pinpoints tropical forest management as an important contributor to climate change mitigation.