Research / BFI Working PaperDec 23, 2020

Deaths of Despair and the Incidence of Excess Mortality in 2020

Weekly mortality through October 3 is partitioned into normal deaths, COVID, and nonCOVID excess deaths (NCEDs). Before March, the excess is negative for the elderly, likely due to the mild flu season. From March onward, excess deaths are approximately 250,000 of which about 17,000 appear to be a COVID undercount and 30,000 non-COVID. Deaths of despair (drug overdose, suicide, alcohol) in 2017 and 2018 are good predictors of the demographic groups with NCEDs in 2020. The NCEDs are disproportionately experienced by men aged 15-55, including men aged 15-25. Local data on opioid overdoses further support the hypothesis that the pandemic and recession were associated with a 10 to 60 percent increase in deaths of despair above already high pre-pandemic levels.

More Research From These Scholars

BFI Working Paper Oct 21, 2020

An Analysis of Vice President Biden’s Economic Agenda: The Long Run Impacts of Its Regulation, Taxes, and Spending

Timothy Fitzgerald, Kevin Hassett, Cody Kallen, Casey Mulligan
Topics:  Uncategorized
BFI Working Paper May 10, 2018

TheoryGuru: A Mathematic Package to apply Quantifier Elimination Technology to Economics

Casey Mulligan, James H. Davenport, Matthew England
Topics:  Health care