Research / BFI Working Paper•Jun 17, 2019
Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System
Ralph Koijen, Motohiro Yogo
Using cross-country holdings, we estimate a demand system for financial assets across 36 countries. Based on the estimated demand system and market clearing, we decompose exchange rates, long-term yields, and equity prices into three sources of variation: macro variables, policy variables (i.e., short-term rates, debt quantities, and foreign exchange reserves), and latent demand. The former two account for 58 percent of the variation in exchange rates, and the remaining variation due to latent demand is geographically concentrated. Policy variables account for 66 percent of the variation in long-term yields. Macro variables account for 63 percent of the variation in equity prices.