We construct a slope factor from changes in federal funds futures of different horizons. Slope predicts stock returns at the weekly frequency: faster monetary policy easing positively predicts excess returns. Investors can achieve increases in weekly Sharpe ratios of 20% conditioning on the slope factor. The tone of speeches by the FOMC chair correlates with the slope factor. Slope predicts changes in future interest rates and forecast revisions of professional forecasters. Our findings show that the path of future interest rates matters for asset prices, and monetary policy affects asset prices throughout the year and not only at FOMC meetings.

More on this topic

BFI Working Paper·Jun 30, 2025

Building Costs and House Prices

Brian Potter and Chad Syverson
Topics: Financial Markets
BFI Working Paper·Jun 30, 2025

Borrowing Constraints, Markups, and Misallocation

Huiyu Li, Chen Lian, Yueran Ma, and Emily Martell
Topics: Fiscal Studies
BFI Working Paper·Jun 23, 2025

Macro Shocks and Firm-Level Response Heterogeneity

Steven J. Davis, Stephen Hansen, and Cristhian Seminario-Amez
Topics: Financial Markets