Can Audits Shift the Battleground? Supply Chain Certifications and Conflict Dynamics in the Congo

We examine the impact of conflict-free certifications for small-scale gold mines, introduced to comply with the Dodd-Frank Act, on conflict dynamics in the Eastern DRC. The audit system initiation at Dodd-Frank enactment did not significantly alter conflict patterns, inconsistent with the system deterring armed group financing. Instead, we find that actual audit visits displace armed-group-initiated conflicts from within 10 kilometers of audited mines to areas 25-75 kilometers away. In the aggregate, conflict intensity within 75 kilometers remains largely unchanged, and conflict is not decreasing in certification frequency at the territory level. Overall, these changes in conflict dynamics are inconsistent with what we would expect from a successful certification system but instead suggest that armed groups adjust their protective resource allocation to circumvent the intent of the audit system.