Research / BFI Working PaperMay 15, 2024

Predicting Police Misconduct

Greg Stoddard, Dylan J. Fitzpatrick, Jens Ludwig

Whether police misconduct can be prevented depends partly on whether it can be predicted. We show police misconduct is partially predictable and that estimated misconduct risk is not simply an artifact of measurement error or a proxy for officer activity. We also show many officers at risk of on-duty misconduct have elevated off-duty risk too, suggesting a potential link between accountability and officer wellness. We show that targeting preventive interventions even with a simple prediction model – number of past complaints, which is not as predictive as machine learning but lower-cost to deploy – has marginal value of public funds of infinity.

More Research From These Scholars

BFI Working Paper Mar 13, 2023

Machine Learning as a Tool for Hypothesis Generation

Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan
Topics:  Technology & Innovation
BFI Working Paper Mar 21, 2022

Policing and Management

Max Kapustin, Terrence Neumann, Jens Ludwig
Topics:  Uncategorized
BFI Working Paper Feb 5, 2024

The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Algorithms

Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, Ashesh Rambachan
Topics:  Uncategorized