Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits

Using subnational data from 41 countries, we develop an empirical model of the mortality-temperature relationship that allows us to estimate effects where no mortality data exist and to account for the benefits of adaptation to climate. Importantly, we develop a revealed preference approach that bounds adaptation costs, even though they cannot be directly observed. Using future climate simulations, we compute a median willingness-to-pay of $20 (moderate emissions scenario) to $39 (high emissions scenario) to avoid the excess mortality risk caused by a 1t increase in CO2 emissions (2015 USD, 3% discount rate). Allocating these costs to 24,378 political units, we find substantial heterogeneity.