Sticky Wage Norms and the Real Wage Cost of Unexpected Inflation

We use a sample of administrative payroll data covering a large and nationally representative share of U.S. workers to study how wages adjusted during the recent inflation period. Most firms apply a single modal annual nominal wage increase to the majority of their workers, and these firm-level norms changed little during the recent period of unexpected inflation. As a result, nominal wages did not keep pace with prices for a large share of workers who stayed at their firms. Forty-three percent of workers continuously employed at the same firm over the four years spanning 2021–2024 experienced a real wage decline, with a mean loss of roughly nine percent among those who fell be-hind. Workers could escape sticky wage norms by changing employers — job-changers’ wages rose nearly one-for-one with inflation — but switching was too infrequent to matter for most. Even accounting for job-changers, 37 percent of all workers saw real wages decline over the 4-year period. Indexing firms’ modal raises one-for-one to inflation would have closed roughly 40 percent of the resulting shortfall relative to pre-pandemic trend. Drawing on cross-country evidence from Belgium, whose wages are automatically indexed to inflation, we show that incomplete wage indexation, rather than inflation itself, helps explain the persistence of depressed consumer sentiment during the 2021–2024 period.