The Local Damages from Global Climate Change

This paper produces the first estimates of local damages from climate change, reflecting heterogeneous exposure and responses to climate for ∼25,000 globally comprehensive regions. Global damages from a marginal ton of CO2 emissions (i.e., the social cost of carbon) are $336 (2025 USD), with just 5% occurring in OECD countries that account for half of historical emissions. Restricting to country-level analysis obscures half the variation in local damages. Despite large benefits from adaptation and modest average impacts, 7% of world population experiences annually recurring Great Recession level damages by 2100 under business-as-usual warming. These findings illustrate climate change’s marked inequality.