In 2025, statutory tariff rates on U.S. imports rose to levels not seen in over one hundred years. What are the implications for prices? On the one hand, shipping lags, exemptions, and enforcement gaps have kept the actual implemented rates at only half of the statutory rates, moderating the tariffs’ impact. On the other hand, tariff pass-through to U.S. import prices is almost 100 percent, so the United States is bearing a large share of the costs. We study the incidence of the 2018-2019 and 2025 U.S. tariffs and discuss implications for U.S. sourcing, domestic manufacturing costs, and the dollar.

More on this topic

BFI Working Paper·Aug 4, 2026

The Value of Behavioral Policies

John List, Matthias Rodemeier, Sutanuka Roy, and Gregory K. Sun
Topics: Tax & Budget
BFI Working Paper·Apr 2, 2026

Identification and Estimation of Labor Supply Elasticities from Kinked Budget Sets

Deniz Dutz, Magne Mogstad, Morten Håvarstein, and Alexander Torgovitsky
Topics: Tax & Budget
BFI Working Paper·Mar 20, 2026

Substitution and Income Effects of Labor Income Taxation

Michael Graber, Morten Håvarstein, Magne Mogstad, Gaute Torsvik, and Ola L. Vestad
Topics: Tax & Budget