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This conference seeks to advance research on the methods to elicit and measure inflation expectations of households and firms, their determinants, and how firms and households use their inflation expectations when making consumption, savings, leverage, labor supply, wage bargaining, investment, price setting, and hiring decisions, among others.

Inflation expectations are central to intertemporal consumption, saving, and investment choices and shape the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy.  The recent surge in realized inflation in the United States and other developed economies raises new questions about the anchoring of inflation expectations and the consequences of shifting expectations for economic activity.

The event will take place on October 5-6, 2023. In addition to contributed papers, the program will feature presentations by invited speakers Nick Bloom (Stanford University) and Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley).

If you have any questions, please email bfi-events.@uchicago.edu.


Thursday, October 5, 2023
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Registration and Breakfast
9:00 am - 9:45 am
The Pass-Through of Inflation Expectations into Prices and Wages: Evidence from an RCT Survey

Sarah Lein, University of Basel (Presenter)

Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (Discussant)

9:45 am - 10:30 am
Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees

Sascha Möhrle, ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys (Presenter)

Gizem Kosar, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Discussant)

10:30 am - 11:00 am
11:00 am - 11:45 am
Polarized Expectations, Polarized Consumption

Rupal Kamdar, Indiana University (Presenter)

Will Cassidy, Washington University (Discussant)

11:45 am - 12:30 pm
Inflation Expectations and Portfolio Rebalancing of Households: Evidence from Inflation Targeting in India

Yeow Hwee Chua, Nanyang Technological University (Presenter)

Ray Kluender, Harvard University (Discussant)

12:30 pm - 2:00 pm
First floor dining room
2:00 pm - 3:00 pm
Keynote Session
Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University
3:00 pm - 3:30 pm
3:30 pm - 4:15 pm
Inflation Expectations at Times of High and Low Inflation

Michal Marenčák, National Bank of Slovakia (Presenter)

Rüdiger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame (Discussant)

4:15 pm - 5:00 pm
Global Evidence on Inflation Expectations
Francesco D’Acunto, Georgetown University
7:00 pm
Conference Dinner
Friday, October 6, 2023
8:30 am - 9:00 am
Registration and Breakfast
9:00 am - 9:45 am
Individual Uncertainty and Attentiveness to Macroeconomic Conditions

Shihan Xie, University of Illinois

Jenny Tang, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

9:45 am - 10:30 am
The Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks to Firms' Expectations

Mathieu Pedemonte, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Carolin Pflueger, University of Chicago

10:30 am - 11:00 am
11:00 am - 12:00 pm
Keynote Session
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley
12:00 pm - 1:30 pm

First floor dining room

1:30 pm
Conference Adjourns