Developing and Using Business Expectations Data

October 25–26, 2018

(All day)

Saieh Hall, Rm 146 & Rm 021 | 5757 S. University Ave, Chicago, IL
Organizers
Steven J. Davis, University of Chicago Booth School of Business and the Hoover Institution
Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University

This conference featured research that develops, fields and uses surveys of business leaders’ expectations and beliefs. Key topics included the design and evaluation of such surveys, the formation and accuracy of expectations, how expectations feed into business decisions, and the impact of expectations quality on business performance.

Program
 

Thursday, October 25 – Saieh Hall Room 146

12:00 – 1:00 p.m. 

Lunch and Registration 
 

1:00 – 1:45 p.m.

Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms’ Subjective Beliefs

Ruediger Bachmann, University of Notre Dame
 

1:45 – 2:30 p.m.

Business Level Expectations and Uncertainty

Scott Ohlmacher, University of Maryland

 
2:30 – 2:45 p.m.   Break
 
2:45 – 3:30 p.m.

Do you Know That I Know That You Know…? Higher-Order Beliefs in Survey Data

Jane Ryngaert, Wake Forest University

 
3:30 – 4:15 p.m.     

Do Managerial Forecasting Biases Matter?

David Thesmar, MIT

 
4:15 – 4:45 p.m.    Break
 
4:45 – 5:30 p.m.              

Misallocation Effects and Brexit
Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham

 
5:30 – 6:30 p.m.              

Keynote Speaker

Andrei Shleifer, Harvard University
 

6:30 p.m.       Adjourn for the day

Friday, October 26 – Saieh Hall Room 021

 

8:30 a.m.                        

Breakfast – Outside of Room 021
 

9:00 – 9:45 a.m.             

Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations

Simon Sheng, American University

 
9:45 – 10:30 a.m.         

Firm Performance and Macro Forecast Accuracy

Mari Tanaka, Hitotsubashi University

 
10:30 – 10:45 a.m.   Break
 
10:45 – 11:15 a.m.

Atlanta Fed Survey Data

David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

 
11:15 – 12:00 p.m.

The Micro and Macro Implications of Managers’ Subjective Beliefs

Jose Barrero, Stanford University
 

12:00 - 1:00 p.m.            

Lunch – Room 112
 

1:00 – 1:45 p.m.              

Managerial Recalibration: Do CFOs Learn?

Campbell Harvey, Duke University
 

1:45 – 2:30 p.m.             

Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations

Nicola Gennaioli, Bocconi University
 

2:30 – 2:45 p.m.    Break
 
2:45 – 3:30 p.m.              

Uncertainty, Imperfect Information and Learning in the International Market

Cheng Chen, University of Hong Kong and Clemson University
 

3:30 – 4:00 p.m.             

A Firm-Level Perspective on Micro and Macro Level Uncertainty

Ted Dolby, Office for National Statistics
 

4:00 p.m.   Conference adjourns
 
October 25, 2018 (All day) October 26, 2018 (All day)