Return to Office and the Tenure Distribution

With the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, debates over return-to-office mandates have intensified, though their economic implications are not fully understood. Using large-scale resume data, we analyze the impact of these policies on employee tenure and seniority at three large U.S. tech companies: Microsoft, SpaceX, and Apple. Employing a distributional synthetic controls framework, we estimate a reduction in tenure and seniority at firms returning to the office. To do so, we extend this framework by developing a functional bootstrap procedure and proving its validity for constructing uniform confidence bands. Our findings suggest return-to-office mandates may drive senior employees to competitors, posing a risk to firm productivity and innovation.